What Will To Lam's Foreign Policy Look Like?

President To Lam has been elected the new general secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) after an extraordinary plenum of the Central Committee, cementing his position as the country's most powerful politician. 

All eyes are now on To Lam, the first person to hold both of the most powerful positions in Vietnamese politics since the late General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong in 2021. As Vietnam faces tremendous challenges across different areas, from a slowing economy and increasing social issues to balancing international relations, observers are keen to see what To Lam’s foreign policy will look like.

A Lifelong Security Officer

It is important to remember that To Lam is a lifelong security officer. His father, To Quyen, was a colonel of the Ministry of Public Security (the national police), specifying the security police, who served in Tay Ninh Province during the height of the Vietnam War. To Quyen’s task was to protect Communist cells in South Vietnam and fight against espionage.

With a truly “princeling” upbringing surrounded by the security apparatus and revolutionaries, it is clear that To Lam is a hardliner whose sole goal is the survival of his party. To Lam later attended the Public Security Academy, following in his father's footsteps, and became a security agent at 22. He then spent decades working in the Political Protection Department, controlling state secrets, conducting counterespionage, and monitoring activities that could cause a “color revolution.”   

While sharing a conservative background similar to his predecessor, Nguyen Phu Trong, and a security background similar to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin—both far from the technocratic type of leader—To Lam stands out as a pragmatic, wise, and cunning statesman. 

Although he was a security officer who trained in socialist Vietnam during the Vietnam War, which might signal that he would be more favorable towards Russia and China, Vietnam’s longtime allies, To Lam has not been reluctant to work with the West. 

During his tenure as the Minister of Public Security from 2016 to 2021, To Lam expanded the MPS cooperation beyond the traditional partners of Russia, China, and other former Communist countries. He embarked on a series of trips abroad to the U.S., the UK, Israel, India, South Korea, and other non-Communist countries to establish new partnerships and acquire equipment that could better assist in cracking down on dissidents at home while also strengthening the organization’s cyber warfare capability, both against China and what he considered as “reactionaries.”

This new strategy has proved to be effective. Vietnam’s ability in cyber control and cyberwarfare has grown exponentially, with the capability to conduct attacks against “enemies" at home and abroad and against foreign governments. One of To Lam’s biggest achievements thus far has been to persuade Vietnam’s National Assembly to pass the infamous Cybersecurity Law, which prompted protests nationwide.

The law, requiring foreign internet giants such as Google and Facebook to store data regarding Vietnamese citizens in Vietnam, set up offices in the country, and provide the authorities with users’ information when required, stoked fears among many that Vietnam would use these cyber tools to tighten the rope around freedom of expression, especially on the internet. 

Lam’s pragmatism and willingness to work with Western countries as long as he achieved his goals resulted in Vietnam’s incredible ability to control its largely internet-connected 100-million-strong population. 

His pragmatic approach might tell us a lot about his foreign policy. 

Trong’s Great Legacy of  “Bamboo Diplomacy” 

There is little evidence that To Lam will discontinue Trong’s famous and now legendary “bamboo diplomacy,” which relies on carefully balancing relations between great powers, the U.S., China, and Russia. At least, To Lam has no incentive to make any changes to this policy in the short term.

Despite the recent unanimous votes supporting him to be the new general secretary, To Lam’s position as the top leader of Vietnam is not free from challenges. The 14th Congress of the VCP will take place in 2026, which means that To Lam has a year and a half to strengthen his political base by appointing loyal followers to vital positions and persuading the party that he is the man for the top job.

Dropping Vietnam’s effective foreign policy, a massive legacy of the previous general secretary, will cause disruption and distrust among party members. It might also end up stopping To Lam from gaining absolute power. 

However, this doesn’t mean he will be like his predecessor, Trong, who was seen as more cautious. 

One of To Lam’s most memorable marks on the world stage was his involvement in pursuing Trinh Xuan Thanh in 2017. To Lam, who was the minister of Public Security at the time, directed his agents to snatch Trinh Xuan Thanh, a former oil executive, from a Berlin street in broad daylight and smuggle him back to Vietnam during the minister’s official visit to this Eastern European country.

To Lam’s daring mission won him tremendous support at home, especially from his boss, Nguyen Phu Trong. However, his bold action caused a diplomatic crisis, causing Germany and Slovakia to respond aggressively, which resulted in Vietnamese diplomats being expelled and threats of freezing relations with the country.

Lam has clearly shown not only his recklessness but also his disinterest in complying with international law. He will do whatever it takes to achieve his goal, even if it means bending the rule of law. That willingness to overlook regulations can result in an even more authoritarian Vietnam, whose violations of international law might go beyond just human rights abuses and also spread to other areas, such as complying with international trade deals, treaties, or agreements.

Once that happens, countries will face a dilemma. Suppose the West forced Vietnam to comply with these regulations. In that case, it might result in Lam’s leaning toward Russia and China, thus tipping the balance of power in the region, something that no major Western-leaning powers would like to see.

Washington’s recent denial of Vietnam’s status as a market economy means there is still a long way to go for Vietnam to be a law-abiding player on the world stage, at least not according to Western standards. With the solidification of power into Lam’s hands, a reckless foreign policy that might see Vietnam come closer to the sphere of China and Russia is not totally unexpected.