The China Factor in Vietnam

The Vietnamese Magazine will begin its new series: "Chinese Influence Operations in Vietnam," exploring the multifaceted and often covert strategies China employs to exert influence over Vietnam's political, economic, and social landscapes. Through in-depth analysis and investigative reporting, we hope the series will uncover how these operations shape public opinion, influence government decisions, and impact bilateral relations.

Taiwan has served as a laboratory for China's influence operations for years. Despite a complex history and the unique relationship between these two territories, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), for the last decades, has continued to refine techniques of influence, disinformation, and interference that it can potentially deploy elsewhere. China's pervasive presence in Taiwan has created a crucial concept for understanding the dynamics at play: the "China factor."

China's foreign influence campaigns in democratic countries are increasingly known and well-documented. From lobbying strategies on representative and market economy infiltrations to Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI), the CCP’s “united front” is conducting campaigns globally. However, these campaigns to destabilize democratic societies do not mean the CCP is any less active in pushing its interests in more like-minded countries, such as Vietnam. Earlier this year, we highlighted the shared heritage between Vietnam and China in terms of culture, politics, and society. In the contemporary era, Vietnam continues to follow China's lead in some ways, and simultaneously, China is influencing Vietnam to safeguard its own interests.

Beyond the complex relationship and mutual mistrust between these two countries, China's direct or indirect pressure on Vietnam—whether through economic or political collaboration or more subtle forms of influence—raises questions about the shape the "China factor" is taking in Vietnam. Today, we launch a new series of articles exploring Chinese influence operations with a focus on Vietnam. From a Vietnamese perspective, we will examine China's economic leverage over Vietnam, the cooperation between state parties, the United Front, and the "Three Warfares" strategy.

From Past to Present: China's Lasting Influence on Vietnam

From China's thousand-year occupation of the country and Vietnam's independence in 939 to the contemporary era, Chinese influence on Vietnam has had a profound and enduring history. Vietnam has been under multilevel Sinicization for centuries, adopting and adapting similar governance cultures and political organizations, aligning its political direction with its northern neighbor. Beyond the Sinicization of political organization from imperial times to the Communist Party's state political monopoly, China has long influenced the Vietnamese model. [1]

Since the first Vietnamese independence in 939, this country has remained a vassal of its northern neighbors, adopting similar administration and writing structures. Although a hundred years of French colonization broke this bond, when Vietnam gained its second independence, it again tied its destiny to that of China, which had become a Communist country.  

From the Vietnam War, until the VCP extended its control over the entire country in official unification in July 1976, the party-state has been a source of inspiration, an ally, and a rival at the same time. Since re-establishing official diplomatic relations in 1991, the two Communist Parties have enjoyed a more peaceful and aligned relationship. Indeed, the 1980s marked a significant evolution, combining party-state authoritarianism with a state-oriented capitalist market economy.

The past 40 years illustrate how the Vietnam governance model, political control, economic management (e.g., economic zones), legal framework, and repression of civil society have been implemented after China’s “reform and opening-up.”

Like China's experience, Vietnam's “Đổi Mới” (1986) policy and economic liberalization have not led to democratization in either country. Instead, 40 years of economic liberalization have integrated both nations into international organizations such as the WTO, resulting in significant GDP growth. Structurally, modern China and Vietnam share many features, from state-oriented market economies to authoritarian Communist Party control of politics and society. Politically, Vietnam and China share a similar trend of increased authoritarianism and the concentration of power in the hands of one leader. [2]

However, this convergence does not mean China and Vietnam are moving forward hand-in-hand. Over the past decade, Vietnam has become a focal point in the US-China rivalry in the region, highlighting its strategic importance and China's ambitions beyond its borders. In addition to wariness within the VCP  and society about China’s rising ambitions in Southeast Asia, the specter of an increasingly influential China looms over Vietnam.

Paradoxically, recent years have shown a persistent Chinese influence on the VCP's governance patterns, media control, information management, and implementation of technological surveillance policies. This leads us to understand how the long and complex love-hate relationship between Vietnam and China shapes today's influence operations in Vietnam, revealing how this authoritarian brother exports its model and influences Vietnam across multiple dimensions.

Vietnam: A Key Player in China’s Global Influence Strategy 

Despite their rivalry and mistrust, China and Vietnam collaborate on many levels, revealing Vietnam’s growing dependence on Chinese economic investments and governance models. Navigating the rising US-China rivalry, Vietnam appears to be playing a dangerous game, engaging in direct collaboration with the CCP. At the same time, China implements a strategic set of influence tools to push its narrative, defend its interests, and further its global position.

In terms of economic interdependence, China is, by far, Vietnam’s leading economic partner. Vietnam is part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is developing special economic zones to attract foreign investments, primarily from China, following China’s successful model. However, from a Vietnamese public opinion perspective on this participation in BRI, concerns are rising about the ecological impact of some infrastructure projects and China's coercive power through economic bonds. [3]

These concerns are partly rooted in the historical memory of China’s ancient tributary system and its strong influence over the country. Ongoing disputes over sovereignty in the South China Sea also fuel national resentment against China’s presence in the region. Despite these sensitive topics, collaboration between China and Vietnam continues on various fronts. One upcoming article in this series will explore state-level collaboration in which China provides surveillance tools, governance blueprints, and training for Vietnamese civil servants.

Vietnam: Navigating China’s Global Influence Campaign

Numerous studies on Chinese influence strategies published in recent years provide essential insights into the influence China seeks to exert on its southern neighbor, Vietnam, which it still regards as within its sphere of influence. A report by IRSEM researchers Paul Charon and Jean-Baptiste Jeangène Vilmer is essential for understanding the multilayered strategies employed by the People’s Republic of China.

It covers the entire spectrum of influence, from benign public diplomacy to clandestine interference activities. This report benefits Vietnamese readers as it helps them grasp the CCP's multifaceted influence strategies, ranging from economic pressure to political connections and from the “United Front” to the “Three Warfares” doctrine. [4] We'll draw on the lessons learned from this report throughout this series of articles.

Following this multivariable approach, the Taiwan-based organization Doublethink Lab, through its China Index, shows how the "China factor" can affect a country like Vietnam. [5] The China Index measures the degree of CCP influence penetration in various countries based on variables such as “exposure, pressure, and effect.” Vietnam ranks 43rd among the 83 countries evaluated, scoring 113/364. This places Vietnam between France (121/388) and Ukraine (115/372) regarding exposure to Chinese influence. Compared to highly aligned countries with China’s geopolitical agenda, such as Pakistan and Cambodia (ranked first and second, respectively), Vietnam has shown a relative containment of Chinese influence, revealing its mistrust of this cumbersome neighbor. We will also use this index to understand and measure China's direct and indirect impact on Vietnam.

The 2022 China Index report indicates that Chinese influence in Vietnam is particularly intense in the economy, law enforcement, and foreign policy. Economic ties are a powerful leverage point, as China is Vietnam’s most significant economic partner, with robust trade relations and financial connections. The CCP can exert considerable pressure through economic coercion and trade and investment sanctions.

Regarding law enforcement, CCP officials collaborate closely with the VCP through extradition agreements, counter-terrorism efforts, and joint police operations. Lastly, foreign policy convergence represents another collaboration area, with diplomatic ties leading to the training of diplomats and civil servants and pressures on Vietnamese politicians and government employees to align with CCP actions, such as implementing the National Security Law in Hong Kong.

In the coming weeks, we will delve into how China extends its influence over Vietnam through in-depth articles. This series will delve into the diverse tactics utilized by the CCP to shape Vietnam's political, social, and cultural spheres. We will analyze the strong connections between the CCP and the VCP, emphasizing how Vietnam is adopting and adapting to China's governance model, surveillance methods, and political strategies.

Another article will focus on how China is leveraging traditional and digital media to sway public opinion in Vietnam, including the use of disinformation, censorship tactics, and social media manipulation. Ultimately, we will explore the role of non-state actors in China's influence operations, including how China’s  United Front Work Department mobilizes businesses, community organizations, and diaspora networks to further China's interests in Vietnam.