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While the United States and Việt Nam are currently enjoying a diplomatic honeymoon defined by "Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships" and mutual toasts to prosperity, a different narrative is circulating within Hà Nội’s Ministry of Defense.

A recently leaked internal document reveals that the Vietnamese military is actively planning for a "2nd U.S. Invasion," causing a jarring dissonance between the country's outward facade and its internal schemes and machinations.

The document titled, "The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan," was exposed by the human rights group The 88 Project and covered by major international news outlets such as AP News , ABC News , and The Diplomat . The plan suggests that while Hà Nội views the United States as a vital export partner, it simultaneously regards Washington as an existential ideological threat.

However, the importance of this document extends beyond any military contingency Việt Nam might have. Its revelation offers a window into the ingrained paranoia within the Communist Party of Việt Nam (CPV)—a fear that is being redirected inward. The true danger, therefore, lies in how the state weaponizes the concept of national defense to justify its ongoing brutal crackdown on internal dissent.

A Fever Dream of American Belligerence

The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan (357/KH-BTL) , issued by the Vietnamese Navy Command in August 2024, stands as a fascinating case of authoritarian anxiety that blends cold military calculus with deep-seated ideological paranoia. According to the leaked text , Vietnamese military planners operate under the assumption that the United States is a “belligerent” superpower prone to "creating a pretext" to invade nations that "deviate from its orbit."

The document details this imagined invasion with obsessive granularity. Planners envision a scenario where, after failing to coerce Việt Nam into an anti-China containment strategy, the U.S. launches a full-scale military intervention involving 2-3 aircraft carrier groups, 3-4 Marine brigades, and amphibious assaults on coastal areas.

Most alarmingly, the text suggests that if conventional methods fail, "the [U.S.] may use biochemical and tactical nuclear weapons." It further outlines a fear of "high-tech long-range precision artillery" and "non-contact kinetic strikes" designed to decapitate the Vietnamese command structure long before the first U.S. soldier even steps on the shore.

Normally viewed as a tool to safeguard regional stability, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy is instead framed by the document as a mechanism to encircle China and crush socialist regimes. Despite the diplomatic elevation signed by President Biden in 2023, Vietnamese military brass view American posturing regarding freedom and democracy as nothing more than cynical ploys for regime change.

The 88 Project’s Report

The 88 Project’s analysis of the leaked plan offers a direct challenge to the cautiously optimistic narrative often peddled by Washington think tanks and the State Department. For years, the prevailing wisdom has held that Việt Nam is a " swing state " capable of being enticed away from China through economic incentives.

The report’s core strength lies in how it connects foreign policy to domestic repression. It highlights an important distinction in Hà Nội’s threat perception. While China is viewed merely as a territorial rival ("Category 3" adversary), the United States is considered an existential threat to the regime's survival ("Category 1" and "Category 2" adversary). To the CPV, China only threatens borders, while the U.S. threatens the party itself.

However, the report has also taken a few dramatic liberties. The title, "Hà Nội is planning for a Second American invasion," risks overstating the imminence of the threat. Military plans are naturally worst-case scenarios, and even the leaked text itself admits war is "low risk." The Vietnamese military is paranoid, yes, but it is also pragmatic. They understand that they cannot win a conventional war against the United States; their planning reflects a desperate defense and avoidance of escalation rather than active hostility and open combat.

Nevertheless, the report shines in its critique of U.S. policy. It argues convincingly that Washington’s strategy—trading silence on human rights for a "strategic partnership"—has failed. The leaked plan signals that Hà Nội has no intention of joining an anti-China alliance, rendering the U.S. policy of overlooking repression in exchange for geopolitical loyalty essentially void.

Contextualizing Vietnamese Military Paranoia

Before dismissing the Vietnamese leadership as uniquely delusional, it is important to discuss the nature of global military planning. Paranoia is a job requirement for generals; a Ministry of Defense that fails to plan for worst-case scenarios commits a grave dereliction of duty. In this light, Việt Nam’s "2nd U.S. Invasion Plan" is functionally identical to other contingency plans hidden in the hard drives and filing cabinets of the Pentagon, the Kremlin, or Whitehall.

The United States, in particular, has a prolific history of drafting invasion plans against friends and foes alike. In the 1920s and 30s, " War Plan Red " outlined a strategy to invade Canada and the UK, envisioning the use of aggressive naval actions and the seizure of key cities—such as Quebec and Montreal—to cripple Canadian infrastructure. Similarly, in 1973, the U.S. and UK drafted plans to invade Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Abu Dhabi to seize oil fields during the Arab oil embargo.

This pattern continues into the modern era. The American Service-Members' Protection Act of 2002, known as the " Hague Invasion Act " and still in effect today, authorizes the U.S. president to use “ all means” necessary—including military force—to liberate U.S. personnel held by the International Criminal Court. Effectively, the U.S. maintains legal authorization to invade a NATO ally to shield its soldiers from justice.

Given this context, Việt Nam’s fears are not unfounded. The leaked document cites U.S. interventions against nations that " deviate from its orbit " as proof of belligerence, a fear substantiated by historical record. Watching U.S. discussions regarding military options in Venezuela , Vietnamese military planners see a reflection of their own potential future.

When a superpower explicitly embraces " might makes right, " smaller nations with opposing systems will inevitably draft defensive contingencies. Having survived one American invasion, Việt Nam can hardly be blamed for preparing for a second.

The Real Target

Even though military paranoia may be standard for generals and other military top brass, the application of that paranoia in Việt Nam is still excessively sinister. The "2nd U.S. Invasion Plan" describes tanks and aircraft carriers that exist only on paper, but the victims of this mindset are real—and they are currently sitting in Vietnamese prisons.

The most disturbing aspect of the leaked plan lies not in an imaginary war with Washington, but in the very real war on Vietnamese civil society. The document explicitly conflates " peaceful evolution "—the promotion of democracy, human rights, and civil liberties—with acts of war.

Advocacy for religious freedom or labor rights is framed as the opening salvo of a U.S. invasion. By branding activists, journalists, and reformers as foot soldiers of a CIA-directed " Color Revolution, " the Communist Party justifies the crushing of illegal associations and human rights defenders under the guise of national defense.

Desperate to cultivate Vietnam as a bulwark against China, Washington cautiously holds back its criticism of human rights abuses. Yet, Hà Nội continues to view the U.S. as a mortal enemy seeking regime change through democracy. And in the middle of this geopolitical game, Vietnamese citizens pay the price.

In the end, the "2nd U.S. Invasion Plan" is a regime survival guide masquerading as defense policy. It allows the Party to externalize the threat of its own populace. Stripped of the doom-mongering about tactical nukes, all that is left is the revelation that the Vietnamese government views its people’s desire for freedom as a foreign conspiracy and acts accordingly.

References: +

The Vietnamese Magazine. (2026, February 9). “Absolute confidence” messages as Tô Lâm and senior leaders are nominated for Vietnam’s National Assembly . https://thevietnamese.org/2026/02/absolute-confidence-messages-as-to-lam-and-senior-leaders-are-nominated-for-vietnams-national-assembly/

The Associated Press. (2026, February 4). Document show Vietnam's military preparing for a possible American war . AP News. https://apnews.com/article/vietnam-us-war-planning-china-115c4f9bc69d91e7afe6b4dba7dc460f

The Associated Press. (2026, February 3). Internal document shows Vietnamese military preparing for American war . ABC News. https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/internal-document-shows-vietnamese-military-preparing-american-war-129800527

Hunt, L. (2026, February 5). Vietnam Planning For ‘Second US Invasion,’ Leaked Government Document Claims. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/vietnam-planning-for-second-us-invasion-leaked-government-document-claims/

Report Swanton, B. (2026). Hanoi is planning for a 2nd American invasion: US policy is increasing tensions and fueling repression. Project88. https://the88project.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/P88-Plan-prevent-a-2nd-US-invasion-FINAL.pdf

U.S. Embassy & Consulate in Vietnam. (2023, September 11). FACT SHEET: President Joseph R. Biden and General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong announce the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership . https://vn.usembassy.gov/fact-sheet-president-joseph-r-biden-and-general-secretary-nguyen-phu-trong-announce-the-u-s-vietnam-comprehensive-strategic-partnership/

Manyin, M. E., & Wong, L. (2025, November 21). U.S.-Vietnam Relations (CRS Report No. IF10209) . Congressional Research Service. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10209

Darren. (2025, July 20). War Plan Red: The forgotten U.S. plot to battle Britain . History Collection. https://historycollection.com/war-plan-red-the-forgotten-u-s-plot-to-battle-britain/

Cecco, L. (2026, January 27). The US drew up a plan to invade Canada in 1930. Now Trump is reviving old fears . The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/27/trump-canada-us-war-plan

Al Jazeera. (2004, January 1). US ready to invade Middle East in 1973 . https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2004/1/1/us-ready-to-invade-middle-east-in-1973

Human Rights Watch. (2002, August 3). U.S.: “Hague Invasion Act” becomes law . https://www.hrw.org/news/2002/08/03/us-hague-invasion-act-becomes-law

Anadolu Agency. (2024, December 5). US use of ‘Hague Invasion Act’ to threaten ICC sparks backlash . https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-use-of-hague-invasion-act-to-threaten-icc-sparks-backlash/3414671