The Latest: The World Bank forecasts that Việt Nam’s economic growth will slow to 6.8% in 2026, dropping from the 8% growth recorded the previous year. This projected slowdown indicates that the country will fall short of the government’s ambitious double-digit growth targets, driven by excessive credit expansion and domestic vulnerabilities.
The Details: The World Bank forecasts inflation in 2026 at 4.2%. The institution warned that Việt Nam’s banking system is currently facing funding pressure because credit growth is outpacing the growth of deposit mobilization.
Furthermore, the World Bank warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could negatively affect Việt Nam’s exports while adding pressure on the banking sector and the exchange rate, particularly amid high corporate leverage and limited foreign exchange reserves.
Mariam J. Sherman, the World Bank’s country director for Việt Nam, said: “A weakening global environment is making Việt Nam’s external conditions more challenging, while the oil price shock is increasing downside risks.”
To address these issues, the World Bank recommended that Việt Nam shift its economic model away from a dependence on bank financing and toward productivity-driven growth. At the same time, it stated that Việt Nam should further develop its capital markets and attract “higher-quality” foreign direct investment.
The Background: In nearly 40 years of Đổi Mới reforms since 1986, Việt Nam has never recorded a year in which GDP growth reached 10%. According to data from Trading Economics, Việt Nam’s average GDP growth rate from 2000 to 2025 was about 6.3% per year.
On the issue of growth and financial stability, State Bank Governor Nguyễn Thị Hồng warned at the ninth session of the 15th National Assembly on June 19, 2025, that Việt Nam’s outstanding credit had reached 134% of GDP by the end of 2024.
“If this trend continues, it will pose systemic risks and could have consequences for the economy,” Hồng said. The head of the banking system also emphasized that, in the current context, maintaining high growth while ensuring sustainability would be a major challenge.
Why It Matters: In late April, the National Assembly assigned the government to pursue an annual economic growth target of 10% or higher from now through 2030. This mandate carries the expectation that GDP per capita will reach approximately $8,500, a goal intended to place Việt Nam among the world’s 30 largest economies by GDP.
Thạch Hãn wrote this article in Vietnamese and published it in Luật Khoa Magazine on May 20, 2026. The Vietnamese Magazine has the copyrights of the English translation.
