A Decade of Silence: Việt Nam and the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award

On July 12, 2026, the 10th anniversary of the landmark 2016 South China Sea arbitral ruling took place. 

In Subic Bay, a coordinated ceremony saw the Philippine Navy, U.S. Navy, and commercial vessels sound 10 long blasts alongside water salutes to celebrate a decade of international law triumphing over brute force. To further cement the permanence of the ruling, the Philippine Postal Corporation even unveiled commemorative stamps depicting a Filipino fisherman and a green sea turtle.

The international response was equally robust. An impressive coalition of 14 nations—including Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—released a heavily publicized joint statement. Alongside a separate declaration from the European Union, this group reaffirmed the ruling as final, legally binding, and the ultimate benchmark against Beijing’s expansive and ludicrous maritime claims.

However, a quick scan of the signatories reveals a glaring, almost comical omission. Strangely, Việt Nam—a nation that arguably has the most on the line in the South China Sea—was noticeably absent from the list of public supporters.

The Bamboo Bends

Few nations benefit as directly from the 2016 arbitral award as Việt Nam. By fundamentally clarifying maritime entitlements under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the tribunal utterly dismantled China’s delusional “historic rights” and the notorious nine-dash line. Việt Nam has leveraged this ruling to assert jurisdiction over areas such as Vanguard Bank and Rifleman Bank, entirely dismissing Beijing’s attempts to concoct sovereignty disputes out of thin air.

Yet, public solidarity apparently remains a bridge too far for Hà Nội. The Vietnamese government opts instead for the shadows, executing its renowned “bamboo diplomacy”—a strategy characterized by strong roots and flexible branches that bend to prevailing geopolitical winds. Rather than standing publicly with the international community, Hà Nội prefers to whisper its support in private.

Just weeks before the anniversary, on June 1, 2026, Vietnamese President Tô Lâm met with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at Malacañang Palace in Manila. Behind closed doors, the leaders upgraded bilateral ties to an Enhanced Strategic Partnership and quietly reaffirmed their mutual backing of the 2016 arbitral award.

It is clear that Việt Nam is pursuing a strategic approach by offering private support while publicly remaining silent. While one cannot entirely fault a nation sharing a massive land border with a superpower for exercising caution, the logic of this perpetually loose stance demands extra scrutiny at this juncture.

China routinely blasts Philippine vessels with water cannons, deploys aggressive maritime militias, and enacts unilateral summer fishing bans covering Vietnamese waters year after relentless year. With Beijing simultaneously reclaiming massive swaths of land and building airstrips in the Paracel Islands, fence-sitting makes increasingly less sense. Bamboo diplomacy might look elegant in political science textbooks, but remaining non-committal during aggressive regional escalations appears less like strategic genius and more like cowardice.

The Flaming Summer of 2011 

To understand the disconnect between the Vietnamese state’s diplomatic timidity and the actual pulse of the nation, the fiery summer of 2011 must be revisited. Unlike their government, the Vietnamese people harbor absolutely none of this paralyzing caution.

When Chinese maritime surveillance vessels severed the seismic cables of the PetroVietnam survey ship Bình Minh 02 in May 2011 and repeated the offense on the Viking 2 just weeks later, the public did not respond ambiguously. Instead, the outrage transformed into 11 consecutive weeks of intense, passionate street protests in Hà Nội and Hồ Chí Minh City. 

Thousands of citizens from all walks of life marched to defend national sovereignty and demand accountability for China’s blatant territorial violations. The people sang patriotic songs, carried banners denouncing the illegal nine-dash line, and stood their ground unapologetically.

Although the Vietnamese government initially allowed this inspiring display of patriotism, the authorities eventually capitulated to Beijing’s pressure as the movement gained momentum. The government deployed riot police, violently dragged peaceful demonstrators onto buses, confiscated cameras, and issued strict ultimatums banning all anti-China demonstrations.

By actively suppressing its own citizens to maintain a fragile, illusory peace with an encroaching neighbor, the state highlighted a clear reality. The events of 2011 perfectly illustrate the ongoing chasm between the government’s current inaction and the unwavering national pride of the Vietnamese people.

True Allies Do Not Hide in the Shadows

The dichotomy between a cautious state and its courageous citizenry is obvious. While the Vietnamese government refrains from joining the international chorus celebrating the tribunal’s milestone, the Vietnamese diaspora clearly demonstrates where true solidarity lies. 

In Manila, members of the Vietnamese community gathered alongside local advocacy groups to publicly celebrate the Philippines’ historic legal victory against China. Donning identical red shirts bearing the yellow star of their homeland, these individuals expressed their unwavering support for the arbitration decision.

These citizens did what their own government could not, or rather, would not do. A spokesperson for the Vietnamese Community in the Philippines publicly congratulated the host nation, boldly declaring that justice prevails over coercion and intimidation while stressing that China’s tendency to ignore international law must be stopped. 

Their actions are reminiscent of the unyielding fire that burned in the streets of Hà Nội and Hồ Chí Minh City back in 2011. They spoke openly against a regional bully, entirely ignoring the timid diplomatic scripts favored by state officials.

The 10th anniversary of the arbitral ruling exposes a complex reality. The state apparatus in Hà Nội will likely continue issuing private assurances while fiercely avoiding public accountability. 

Consequently, there are serious issues with expecting the Vietnamese government to have the Philippines’ back when push ultimately comes to shove in the South China Sea. The state’s rigid commitment to self-preservation guarantees that it remains a highly unreliable partner in any public showdown.

However, the resounding message from the streets is entirely different. At the very least, regional neighbors know beyond a shadow of a doubt that they have a true, fearless ally in the Vietnamese people themselves.