Money for Tết 2026: Is This Spring Really ‘Better,’ or Just More Expensive

Ahead of the Lunar New Year 2026, media outlets have repeatedly described consumer spending as “gloomy,” “cautious,” and “sluggish.” This paints a stark contrast to the robust growth figures reported for 2025—statistics that Vietnamese authorities have touted with pride.

This divergence raises a difficult question: Why is the economy reportedly growing strongly while consumer purchasing power declines, even during the peak holiday shopping season?

The answer lies in the nuance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). For years, a CPI hovering around 3–4% has been cited by experts as proof that inflation in Việt Nam is controlled and the economy is stable. [1] However, this macroeconomic stability does not reflect the reality for middle- and low-income households, whose wallets are being eroded by the rising costs of essential goods.

Beyond the headline statistics, it is essential to look at everyday grocery bills to understand how price changes are suppressing spending capacity while incomes fail to keep pace.

Living Cost Changes Over the Past Six Years

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a gauge of the cost of living, measuring whether a standard “basket of goods and services” is becoming more expensive. Simply put, if a basket costing 100,000 đồng last year rises to 105,000 đồng this year, the cost of living has increased by 5%. When incomes fail to keep pace with this rise, purchasing power declines.

Recent data highlights significant fluctuations in this index. 

During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, CPI rose 3.23% in 2020 [2] before dropping to 1.84% in 2021 [3] as purchasing power weakened.

The trend reversed from 2022 onward as domestic consumption recovered and input costs rose. CPI climbed to 3.15% in 2022 and 3.25% in 2023 [4] [5], peaking at 3.63% in 2024—the highest increase in the five-year period.

By 2025, the General Statistics Office reported a CPI increase of 3.31%, a figure driven primarily by housing and utilities. [6] The price index for housing, electricity, water, fuel, and construction materials surged by 6.08%, contributing approximately 1.38 percentage points to overall growth. This spike was fueled by a 7.33% increase in rental prices, a 6.45% rise in home maintenance materials, and a 7.2% hike in residential electricity prices following EVN adjustments.

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
CPI increase	3.23%	1.84%	3.15%	3.25%	3.63%	3.31%

Table: CPI growth from 2020–2025. Source: [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12]

Vietnamese Households Spend Heavily on Food

In Vietnam, the cultural maxim that “even heaven’s punishment avoids mealtime” underscores the sanctity of eating. Unsurprisingly, food remains the largest and most unavoidable expense in household budgets, flowing steadily into everything from traditional markets to supermarkets.

Because food is nearly impossible to cut from the budget, even minor price fluctuations have an immediate impact, particularly on middle- and low-income groups. The CPI calculation reflects this, with food typically accounting for 30–35% of the total basket of goods—the highest proportion of any category. [13]

A March 2025 survey by Q&Me showed that Vietnamese consumers spent an average of 6 million đồng per month on food. Of these, 30% spent between 3–5 million monthly, and another 30% spent between 5–6 million. [14]

The disparity between regions is also notable. In major cities like TP. Hồ Chí Minh and Hà Nội, households spent about 7.1 million đồng monthly on food against an average income of 26.5 million đồng (27% of income). However, the burden is heavier in rural areas. Despite lower average incomes of 20.1 million đồng, rural households spent roughly 5.8 million đồng on food, taking up 29% of their total income.

The Same Price Increase, Unequal Hardship

The survey results also indicate that income levels dictate the financial burden of food.

For low-income individuals earning under 15 million đồng per month, food spending averages 4.4 million đồng, or 37% of their income. In contrast, middle-income earners (15–25 million đồng) spend about 5.8 million đồng, or 29%. High-income earners—those making above 25 million đồng—spend the most in absolute terms at 7.5 million đồng, yet this represents only 25% of their income.

This disparity exists because food consumption has natural limits. Wealthier groups may buy premium products, but they only consume up to a certain point, meaning their food spending comprises a smaller slice of their financial pie. Conversely, for lower-income groups, food is an unavoidable expense that dominates the budget.

Consequently, while high-income households may allocate only 10–15% of their budget to food—leaving ample room for services, education, and savings—low-income families face a much harsher reality. For them, food expenses can consume 50–60% of the total household budget, meaning even slight price increases can devastate their purchasing power.

Despite also devoting the majority of their income to food, many low-income households are forced to settle for meals of lower safety and nutritional value. A study on the “cost of a healthy diet” reveals that about 70% of low-income households in Việt Nam cannot afford meals that meet minimum nutritional standards. [15]

This creates an asymmetric pressure. A 2–3% rise in food prices hits low-income groups far harder than the wealthy. When the headline CPI rises by 3%, the “perceived inflation” for poorer households may effectively surge to 6–8%.

This phenomenon is referred to as the silent redistribution effect of inflation, where identical price increases impact population groups unevenly. To cope, vulnerable families are forced to cut back on other essentials—tuition, utilities, healthcare, and transportation—trapping them in a vicious cycle of declining living standards.

This demonstrates that average CPI figures reflect only the surface of the economy. Beneath the statistics, the real purchasing power of low-income workers faces a much heavier burden.

Rising Prices, Stagnant Paychecks

The ultimate measure of economic health is not just how much people earn, but what they can buy. Understanding this requires looking beyond nominal wage increases to real wages—the actual purchasing power of income after inflation.

Although average nominal wages may rise by 5–6% annually, this figure is misleading. These increases are largely concentrated in the formal sector (state employment, finance, and technology). Meanwhile, the informal sector—which accounts for more than 60% of Việt Nam’s workforce—sees wage growth of only 1–2% per year, or even stagnation. [16] Consequently, the majority of workers, from factory laborers to shop employees, do not feel the benefits of economic growth.

Even for those who do get a raise, the math is often grim. If wages rise by 5% but the cost of food, housing, and healthcare climbs by 7%, real disposable income actually declines. [17]

This demonstrates that productivity gains do not automatically translate into improved spending capacity. The real value of labor is being quietly eroded by essential costs that outpace income growth. Macroeconomic indicators like CPI or average wages fail to capture this reality for a majority of citizens. To truly understand the pressure on workers and design effective support policies, analysis must move beyond averages to focus on the actual cost of survival for low-income groups.

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Hiếu Mạnh wrote this article in Vietnamese and published it in Luật Khoa Magazine on Feb. 13, 2026. Đàm Vĩnh Hằng translated it into English for The Vietnamese Magazine.