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At the 14th Congress, the Communist Party of Việt Nam set an ambitious target to achieve GDP growth of over 10 percent during the 2026–2030 period.

Double-digit growth, defined as an increase in GDP of 10 percent or more, poses a severe test for the leadership, especially amid pressures from global value-chain competition, international trade risks, and structural limits related to domestic productivity.

Consequently, forecasts from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund remain considerably more cautious.

Earlier in the year, Việt Nam set into motion this ambitious agenda. While presenting reports on draft documents submitted to the 14th Congress during the opening session on the morning of Jan. 20, General Secretary Tô Lâm likewise emphasized that the country would “strive to achieve an average GDP growth rate of 10 percent per year or higher for the 2026–2030 period.” [3]

On Feb. 7, speaking at a national conference on studying, disseminating, and implementing the Resolution of the Party’s 14th Congress, Nguyễn Thanh Nghị, Head of the Party Central Committee’s Policy and Strategy Commission, described the goal of achieving GDP growth of 10 percent or higher during 2026–2030 as “ very high, ” with several targets at “extremely high, difficult, and challenging levels.” [1]

Nghị also explained that the objective is considered essential for Việt Nam to avoid “ falling behind, ” thereby enabling the country to become a developed, high-income nation by 2045. [2]

Notably, this marks the first time the party has set a growth target at such a level. During the previous 40 years of “Đổi mới” (since 1986), Việt Nam has never recorded a single year where GDP growth reached 10 percent.

Past Performance and Economic Forecasts

Over the past four decades, Việt Nam’s economy has maintained relatively stable growth, averaging about 6.37 percent per year. [4] According to TradingEconomics, between 2000 and 2025, Việt Nam’s average GDP growth stood at roughly 6.3 percent annually. [5]

Despite this historical consistency, when projecting Việt Nam’s economic growth, international organizations such as the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have offered estimates far more cautious than the 10 percent target. [6]

A World Bank report released in March 2025 projected Việt Nam’s GDP growth at 6.8 percent in 2025 and 6.5 percent in 2026. An IMF report published in September 2025 went further, forecasting growth would slow to 6.5 percent due to the impact of U.S. tariff measures. [7]

When these institutional projections are placed alongside the Party’s goal of maintaining an average annual growth rate of 10 percent during the 2026–2030 period, a substantial gap is revealed between political expectations and realistic economic forecasts for Việt Nam.

Between Political Will and Structural Challenges

In his remarks , Nguyễn Thanh Nghị affirmed that the 10 percent figure is not merely an economic target but also an expression of national aspiration, resilience, and determination. Including such a growth objective in the congress documents sends a strong political signal, reflecting expectations of a more powerful economic “takeoff” in the coming period. [8]

Nevertheless, achieving rapid growth in a globalized economy relies heavily on international conditions rather than domestic efforts alone. As a result, Việt Nam's eventual economic outcomes could be significantly influenced by external challenges, including trade volatility, restrictive tariff policies from major partners, ongoing shifts in global supply chains, and the nation's ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI).

Pressure from Value Chains and Labor Competition

Việt Nam has drawn attention thanks to its competitive advantage in low-cost labor, helping attract FDI and boost exports. Yet this advantage is not sustainable, as other regional economies such as India , Indonesia, and Singapore are also intensifying efforts to attract foreign investment. [9] [10]

Furthermore, if Việt Nam raises wages to stimulate domestic consumption, the country’s labor-cost competitiveness within global supply chains could be affected, potentially weakening its export advantage.

As a VnExpress article noted, consumption depends on “people’s psychology, demand, and spending capacity,” meaning that “price reductions must be accompanied by more fundamental solutions,” ranging from macroeconomic policies to improving household income. [11]

Volatility in International Trade Policy

Việt Nam’s growth outlook remains fragile due to shifting global trade policies, particularly those of major partners like the United States.

During his second term, President Donald Trump’s administration has pursued more protectionist trade policies, including selective tariff measures, reviews of trade preferences, and anti-subsidy investigations.

These actions could directly affect Việt Nam’s key export sectors, including electronics, textiles, furniture, and industrial components. [12] Because exports account for such a substantial share of the national GDP, any external shock to demand could severely hamper domestic growth.

Furthermore, the mere unpredictability of these trade policies presents a significant risk. Even if Việt Nam avoids direct U.S. sanctions, an unstable international trade environment often forces businesses and investors to delay critical decisions regarding production expansion, supply chain restructuring, and long-term investments within the country.

Growth Quality and Economic Structure

Economic attention cannot focus solely on GDP growth rates, as the underlying quality of that growth ultimately determines whether it can be sustained over the long term. For many years, Việt Nam’s growth has largely relied on a model based on resource extraction, low-cost labor, and export expansion driven by processing and assembly advantages. [13]

While this framework has allowed the economy to maintain relatively steady momentum, it has also revealed severe structural limits as the capacity to expand traditional input factors continues to narrow.

Labor productivity in Việt Nam has improved significantly, yet growth remains notably slower than that achieved by several East Asian economies during their high-growth transformation periods, such as South Korea or Taiwan in earlier decades. [14]

This gap reflects the reality that most domestic firms remain concentrated in low value-added segments, while research and development capacity, technological innovation, and linkages between the FDI sector and domestic enterprises remain limited . [15]

Furthermore, the transition toward modern sectors has been sluggish. Although the digital economy and high-technology industries are frequently highlighted as new growth drivers, their actual share of GDP remains modest. Much of Việt Nam’s manufacturing sector continues to focus on assembly , heavily dependent on imported inputs and highly vulnerable to external fluctuations. [16] As a result, supply-chain shocks and sudden changes in international trade policy continue to significantly impact the nation's economic growth.

***

Achieving 10 percent GDP growth over the next five years is a goal that reflects the profound political ambition and developmental aspirations of the ruling leadership. However, international organizations forecast Việt Nam’s GDP growth at only 6 to 7 percent in the coming years.

Consequently, this 10 percent target may place significant pressure on macroeconomic policy while simultaneously shaping the expectations of citizens and investors.

While ambitious aspirations can serve as valuable motivation, it is essential to acknowledge market dynamics, carefully analyze global economic developments, and seriously consider the forecasts of international institutions. This balanced approach is the only way to set economic goals that are realistic, rather than ones that are too ambitious and may not be possible to reach.

Lê Thái Bình wrote this article in Vietnamese and published it in Luật Khoa Magazine on Feb. 26, 2026. Đàm Vĩnh Hằng translated it into English for The Vietnamese Magazine.

References: +

Chung, T. (2026, February 6). Ông Nguyễn Thanh Nghị: Tăng trưởng GDP trên 10% để Việt Nam tránh nguy cơ tụt hậu. Tuổi Trẻ . https://tuoitre.vn/ong-nguyen-thanh-nghi-tang-truong-gdp-tren-10-de-viet-nam-tranh-nguy-co-tut-hau-20260207125121104.htm

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An, T. (2026, January 20). Tổng Bí thư Tô Lâm: Phấn đấu tăng trưởng GDP từ 10% trở lên giai đoạn 2026-2030. VTV . https://vtv.vn/tong-bi-thu-to-lam-phan-dau-tang-truong-gdp-tu-10-tro-len-giai-doan-2026-2030-100260120125157708.htm

Thọ, N. Đ., & Linh, N. K. (2025, January 17). Đổi mới kinh tế, tạo đột phá tăng trưởng trong Kỷ nguyên mới. VnEconomy . https://vneconomy.vn/doi-moi-kinh-te-tao-dot-pha-tang-truong-trong-ky-nguyen-moi.htm

Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate. (n.d.). TradingEconomics . https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/gdp-growth-annual

Viet Nam’s Economy Forecast to Grow 6.8 Percent In 2025: WB. (2025, March 12). World Bank . https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/03/12/viet-nam-s-economy-forecast-to-grow-6-8-percent-in-2025-wb

IMF says Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth to slow to 6.5% on US tariff effects. (2025, September 16). Reuters . https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/imf-says-vietnams-2025-gdp-growth-slow-65-us-tariff-effects-2025-09-16/

See [1]

Sedzro, T. (2025, December 17). What is India’s FDI Outlook for 2026? Key Policy Changes, Sectors, and Trade Deals. India Briefing . https://www.india-briefing.com/news/india-fdi-outlook-2026-41381.html/

Shofa, J. N. (2026, January 15). Foreign Investors Put $53 Billion into Indonesia in 2025, Singapore on Lead. Jakarta Globe . https://jakartaglobe.id/business/foreign-investors-put-53-billion-into-indonesia-in-2025-singapore-on-lead#google_vignette

Thông, V. (2025, April 23). Cách nào kích cầu thêm tiêu dùng nội địa? VnExpress . https://vnexpress.net/cach-nao-kich-cau-them-tieu-dung-noi-dia-4877270.html

Mỹ phòng vệ thương mại ảnh hưởng đến Việt Nam như thế nào? (2025, March 2). Tạp chí Điện tử Pháp lý . https://phaply.net.vn/my-phong-ve-thuong-mai-anh-huong-den-viet-nam-nhu-the-nao-a259302.html

Thư, K. (2026, February 8). Tăng trưởng 2 con số trong kỷ nguyên AI: Bài kiểm tra năng lực quản trị quốc gia. Vietnam Finance . https://vietnamfinance.vn/tang-truong-2-con-so-trong-ky-nguyen-ai-bai-kiem-tra-nang-luc-quan-tri-quoc-gia-d139582.html

An, N. (2025, October 20). Năng suất lao động Việt Nam chỉ bằng 11,2% Singapore, đối mặt bẫy thu nhập trung bình. Tuổi Trẻ . https://tuoitre.vn/nang-suat-lao-dong-viet-nam-chi-bang-11-2-singapore-doi-mat-bay-thu-nhap-trung-binh-20251020151606001.htm

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