Việt Nam’s economic ascent has been remarkable, marked by steady GDP growth, record-breaking foreign direct investment (FDI), and an increasingly pivotal role in global supply chains. Yet, this progress has led the nation to a critical juncture. The defining question now is whether Việt Nam can break free from the “middle-income trap”—a stage where many emerging economies stagnate—to achieve its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045.

Promising Numbers

According to the World Bank, the 2024 threshold for upper-middle-income countries starts at a gross national income (GNI) per capita of $4,496. [1] With an estimated GNI per capita of $4,490, Việt Nam is just $6 shy of this mark, suggesting it could graduate to the next income level in the upcoming classification cycle if its current growth trajectory is sustained. [2]